Chapter 98

Liu Bei has declared the Northern Expedition!

The shocking news spread like wildfire, engulfing the entire Central Plains. While the people sighed at the rumors of another war, the rulers were different.

“The time has come.”

This war was nothing but a preordained one. Although the timing was earlier than their predictions, they were not unprepared.

The border defense against Shu Han, which began with Cao Cao’s vigilance against Liu Bei’s rise, was by no means easy. Just as Shu Han prepared for the Northern Expedition, they too had been preparing for this day.

They stabilized the rear by subjugating the northern tribes and strengthened their internal affairs with policies like the Nine Ranks System.

The risky choice of abdication was largely due to Cao Pi’s desire, but it was backed by the calculation that they could withstand the aftermath.

Thus, the attitude of those gathered in the meeting room was calm. Even if the preparations were insufficient, those present were capable of calmly assessing the situation and devising countermeasures.

Among Cao Pi’s most trusted advisors, Sima Yi and Jin Jun stood out with their exceptional abilities.

Zhong Yao, who had been dismissed due to the Wei Feng incident but was reinstated when Cao Pi ascended the throne as the Minister of Justice.

Wang Lang, who rose to the position of Minister of Works for persuading Cao Pi to become emperor.

Hua Xin, who succeeded Xun Yu in managing Wei’s internal affairs.

And Jia Xu, who, along with Wang Lang and Hua Xin, held the position of Grand Commandant, one of the Three Excellencies.

It was no exaggeration to call this a national council meeting, with the Three Excellencies and Cao Pi’s most trusted ministers all gathered.

Naturally, the one who convened this meeting was Cao Pi, who had ascended the throne. Seated on his throne, he questioned his ministers.

“How many troops has Liu Bei mobilized?”

“Over 100,000, Your Majesty.”

“100,000, 100,000…”

Cao Pi pondered the scale of Liu Bei’s mobilized forces, reflecting on past wars.

The last major clash between Cao Cao and Liu Bei was the Battle of Hanzhong. At that time, Cao Cao mobilized 70,000 troops, while Liu Bei had only 50,000.

Of course, both sides were stretched thin at the time, but in just two years, Liu Bei had more than doubled his forces.

“Liu Bei has staked everything on this war.”

As the overseer of internal affairs, Hua Xin gauged Liu Bei’s mobilization capabilities.

Anyone could see from Liu Bei’s mobilized forces that he was serious, but Hua Xin saw beyond that, understanding the administrative power behind the 100,000-strong army.

The world praises Zhuge Liang, and it seems the praise is not unfounded. To mobilize such a large army and ensure its supply so soon after the last war—Hua Xin himself wasn’t sure if he could have done it.

“Indeed, he has staked everything. Therefore, Liu Bei’s forces are likely more than just 100,000.”

Following Hua Xin’s words, Zhong Yao pointed out a detail that could easily be overlooked due to the allure of the number 100,000.

“Though it’s said to be 100,000, if we include the local troops scattered across the regions, it should be more.”

“But they still can’t withdraw their defenses against Sun Quan. There’s precedent for that. Even with local troops, it would only add 20,000 to 30,000.”

“The Minister of Works is correct.”

“Liu Bei is leading 40,000 troops towards Jing Province, and with Guan Yu’s 30,000, that makes 70,000 troops on the Jing Province front.”

“Then about 50,000 are targeting Guanzhong…”

Hua Xin, Zhong Yao, and Wang Lang, all outstanding in administration, analyzed Liu Bei’s forces based on the data they remembered.

The approximate population of Yi Province and Jing Province. The increase in material production due to the construction of facilities like the Dujiangyan. The mobilization capabilities Liu Bei had shown so far.

After adjusting the basic data with variables, the results they derived were highly accurate, closely reflecting the actual state of Liu Bei’s forces.

In reality, the total forces Shu Han mobilized for this Northern Expedition were 120,000. This was the maximum they could gather from Jing Province, Yi Province, and Hanzhong. The large army, formed by uniting even the tribes, was a significant burden for Wei.

After quietly listening to the three men’s conversation, Cao Pi spoke once the outline became clear.

“If Liu Bei personally leads the charge to Jing Province, does that mean his goal is Luoyang?”

The answers were divided.

Wang Lang and Jin Jun believed that Liu Bei’s personal campaign to Luoyang was indeed their goal.

Sima Yi and Zhong Yao thought that the personal campaign was a feint, and their true intention was Chang’an and Guanzhong.

Hua Xin believed that both were feints, and their real goal was to secure Xiliang for a prolonged war.

Their opinions clearly reflected their respective values.

Wang Lang and Jin Jun, who valued justification, saw Liu Bei’s capture of Luoyang and subsequent declaration of emperorship as a major move.

On the other hand, the pragmatists Sima Yi and Zhong Yao placed high importance on the strategic value of Guanzhong.

Hua Xin, as an internal affairs official who prioritized stability, revealed his perspective.

All three arguments had their own merits and evidence, and Liu Bei’s actions made it difficult to definitively decide which was correct.

However, the consensus was that Luoyang was the most dangerous in terms of justification, and Guanzhong was the most valuable region objectively.

“I will exclude the Minister of Works’ opinion. Even if we lose Yong and Liang Provinces temporarily, we can recover them easily. So, the main question is whether their main force is targeting Luoyang or Chang’an… Grand Commandant, you haven’t said anything so far. What do you think?”

The one with the highest status in this room, aside from Cao Pi, was Jia Xu. As one of the Three Excellencies and the one who persuaded Cao Cao to make Cao Pi his successor, Jia Xu’s contributions were unparalleled.

However, the higher his position, the more he humbled himself, limiting his interactions with others and embracing solitude. He rarely intervened in political matters beyond his duties, maintaining silence on external affairs.

The military authority of the Grand Commandant had also been transferred to the position of Grand Marshal, which was held by Zhao Yun, so Jia Xu had been lying low, but this time, he couldn’t remain silent.

The dragon, who had refused to become a dragon, awoke from its long slumber and revealed its profound wisdom to the world.

“Liu Bei is playing a shallow trick.”

“As expected of the Grand Commandant! You can see through Liu Bei’s petty schemes! Please, elaborate.”

“Nine out of ten, their main target is Guanzhong.”

Though he said nine out of ten, Jia Xu seemed fully confident.

“Why is that?”

“This attack is based on the Longzhong Plan that Zhuge Liang presented to Liu Bei. According to it, prioritizing Guanzhong is obvious. If they truly aimed for Luoyang, they would have feigned an attack on Guanzhong.”

“Is Liu Bei personally leading the charge to Jing Province to divert our attention? But wouldn’t that weaken the forces targeting Guanzhong, which is a mistake?”

“That’s why Liu Bei sent Ma Chao.”

“To mobilize the tribes? As the Grand Commandant said, it’s a shallow trick. Then why not send a large force to Guanzhong to retake Hanzhong?”

“If we do that, they will shift their main target to Luoyang. This is their favorite trick. They make it hard to distinguish the main attack from the feint, and if we target the main attack, they switch the feint to the main attack.”

Those who fell for this were Xiahou Yuan and Zhang He.

The tactic of attacking Zhang He, who appeared to be the main force, forcing Xiahou Yuan to send reinforcements, and then ambushing Xiahou Yuan. If Xiahou Yuan hadn’t sent reinforcements, the force attacking Zhang He would have remained the main force and defeated Zhang He.

The main attack becomes the feint, and the feint becomes the main attack. The enemy cannot afford to ignore either. They must either defend both or abandon one.

This tactic, scaled up to a strategic level, formed the framework of this Northern Expedition. And what made this applicable was Cao Pi’s declaration of emperorship.

In other words, falling for Shu Han’s trick was largely due to Cao Pi’s inability to give up his desire for the throne.

However, Jia Xu’s rhetoric never pointed this out.

“Your Majesty’s ascension to the throne by accepting the abdication is the flow of the times chosen by heaven. They do not understand the true mandate of heaven, but they know enough to ride the tide with their shallow tricks.”

By praising the Cao family as the true mandate of heaven while acknowledging that those who defeated Wei also had their tricks, he justified the defeat.

“They merely set a trap using the flow of the times that favors Your Majesty.”

“Then how do we break this trap?”

Cao Pi’s tone became somewhat deferential, reminiscent of the days when his succession was not yet confirmed.

As he had done in the past, Jia Xu answered the question.

“Their true intention lies in Guanzhong, so send reinforcements to Chang’an.”

“Wouldn’t that weaken Luoyang’s defenses?”

“They are trying to use the tribes through Ma Chao, so we can use Your Majesty’s prestige to command the tribes. Since Your Majesty ascended the throne, your glory has shone across the world, and even the Xiongnu Chanyu Huchuquan has submitted to Your Majesty. Send them to Guanzhong.”

While Shu Han feigned a southern campaign to deceive us about the Northern Expedition, Wei had been dealing with the northern tribes. This was both to stabilize the borders and to build justification for Cao Pi’s abdication.

As a result, the Xiongnu Chanyu Huchuquan, who would have surrendered thirty years later, had completely submitted to Wei.

“Two birds with one stone.”

“Send our elite cavalry along with the Xiongnu. In the past, Liu Bei’s subordinate Zhang Ran modified stirrups to train cavalry, but that only made our already abundant cavalry even stronger. With Xiongnu cavalry and our elite cavalry, we can easily defend Guanzhong.”

The stirrups modified by Zhang Ran were already widely used in Wei. Their simple form and easy manufacturing made them easy to replicate.

“Yong and Liang Provinces are ideal for cavalry, and General Zhang He excels more in defeating enemies than defending. Entrust the cavalry to General Zhang He to defend Xiliang, and have Guo Huai, the Inspector of Yong Province, support him. How could they even think of coveting a single piece of Guanzhong?”

As Jia Xu flawlessly explained Shu Han’s strategy and how to block their main force targeting Guanzhong, Cao Pi couldn’t help but applaud and laugh heartily.

“Truly, the Grand Commandant. I will immediately entrust Zhao Zhen with the cavalry and send them to Guanzhong. But what about Luoyang?”

If we block Guanzhong, their main force will shift to Luoyang.

Recalling Jia Xu’s earlier words, Cao Pi asked again, and Jia Xu answered as if it were not difficult.

“This war is already a victory for us if we just defend. We have plenty of troops and abundant supplies, but the enemy is riding high on their momentum. Your Majesty, order the generals to rely on fortresses and terrain for defense.”

“A wise answer. I will issue orders to the Grand Marshal in Wancheng.”

With his spirits lifted by Jia Xu’s words, Cao Pi ended the meeting, seeing no further need for discussion.

Shortly after, as Zhao Zhen was summoned to the palace following Jia Xu’s advice, Sima Yi quickly caught up to Jia Xu.

“Grand Commandant.”

“Hmm? Isn’t this the Minister of Works? Did you call for me?”

“We’re in private, so please call me Zhongda.”

“Very well. Zhongda, why did you call for me?”

“There was something puzzling in your earlier words, so I took the liberty to ask.”

“Puzzling, you say? What is it?”

Sima Yi didn’t think Jia Xu’s words were wrong. The idea that Guanzhong was their true target was something Sima Yi had proposed first, and the solutions Jia Xu mentioned were all things Sima Yi had considered.

Yet, Sima Yi hadn’t voiced them because, aside from his lower status at the meeting, he felt they were insufficient.

A war where we win just by defending.

That’s true.

But Sima Yi felt it wasn’t enough.

Wei needed a visible victory. To uphold the dignity of the imperial state and unify the land, we needed a victory that would halt their rising momentum.

Even if we successfully defend, if they retreat with their forces intact, they will launch a second, third offensive.

After listening to Sima Yi’s argument, Jia Xu, though questioned, turned the question back.

“Zhongda, have you ever thought that we are being led by the nose by them?”

“Now that you mention it… the Grand Commandant is right.”

“Since the Battle of Guandu, Wei has always been on the offensive. But at some point, that relationship began to reverse.”

Was it after Chibi? Wei began to react late to Liu Bei’s attacks.

“We have lost the initiative of the times.”

“Surely… the Grand Commandant isn’t saying they have the mandate of heaven, are you?”

“Of course not. I am a man of Wei.”

“Then!”

Sima Yi’s voice rose.

“Then why didn’t you reveal and break it?”

“Don’t be so angry. A defender has their own advantages. And as for why I didn’t reveal it…”

Then Jia Xu suddenly brought up something seemingly unrelated to their conversation.

“Zhongda, do you remember Zhang Xiu?”

“How could I forget?”

“Then do you know how he died?”

“He died of illness while marching to subjugate the Wuhuan, didn’t he?”

“Do you really think so?”

It was no secret that Cao Pi had tormented Zhang Xiu, who had killed his brother Cao Ang. Beyond that, it was also no great secret that Zhang Xiu, unable to endure Cao Pi’s threats and mockery, had committed suicide.

“I know my place and position well. If I had acted, would I be standing here talking to you?”

Jia Xu’s first principle was self-preservation. Unless absolutely necessary, he would not act, letting things continue as they were.

This was just an extension of that principle, and Sima Yi, disappointed by the answer, took his leave.

As Sima Yi walked away, Jia Xu paused for a moment and looked back. Watching Sima Yi’s retreating figure, Jia Xu narrowed his eyes.

“Is he a loyal subject seeking merit, or a treacherous one hiding ambition?”

Jia Xu had framed his advice as self-preservation, but on a larger scale, it was the correct judgment. Even if they preserved their forces, the long-term loss of supplies and the wear on public sentiment would lead to their downfall.

But Sima Yi was advocating for risk. The rewards of success were great, but the consequences of failure would be irreversible.

Was it just for the sake of merit, or was there something greater hidden within, a larger picture he was seeing?

Jia Xu strongly felt it was the latter. What exactly it was, whether positive or negative, was unclear.

But Jia Xu did not continue his contemplation, quickly erasing it from his mind. That was how Jia Xu lived.

“For a while, there will be no calm days in the land.”