Chapter 95

“……!”

Upon hearing my words, Jinoru’s expression momentarily turned pale—

and then his weathered face gradually clouded over with doubt.

Setting aside the initial shock of hearing it for the first time, he questioned the statement I had delivered with such certainty: “Anima-sama will lose this battle.”

“Hey, Swoen. After all that cryptic back-and-forth, why exactly have you come to this conclusion?”

Yuri is not Luna.

Even if I just went ahead and said it plainly like this, it wouldn’t get through to him—it probably wouldn’t. He’d react similarly to Jinoru.

To persuade him, I need to flesh out this conclusion.

Then again…

Why must I go so far as to help the Aishias Army by trying to convince them?

I’ve already fulfilled my duty to her, having repaid the favor she bestowed upon me. In fact, every time I think about how Iren risked her life to carry out that plan, I feel like I should be receiving something from her instead.

And yet, why must I still help?

Without going too far afield, it’s because I’m currently part of the Aishias Army too.

Moreover, judging based on the stories I’ve heard from Anima and the current state of this nation…

If something were to go wrong with her, the Aishias Army would undoubtedly collapse rapidly.

No, it’s not just her. If something happened to Erhandorf, Emma, or Epinal, the result would be the same.

There’s no need to deliberate further. They’d likely amass troops recklessly under the banner of revenge. While they might ride high on their vengeful momentum early on, in a prolonged conflict, they’d inevitably fall to the Serpina Army, whose strength far surpasses theirs. This much is obvious without needing any special foresight.

This strong bond between these five individuals, forged through shared experiences rising from the bottom, could perhaps be seen as an advantage.

In these chaotic times, being able to truly trust each other’s backs is, in itself, a valuable asset. It’s a world where deception runs rampant, and betraying one’s lord isn’t even considered a major flaw. Just look at how easily Iren and I are getting by right now.

But…

For all its advantages, there are clear disadvantages too. Even with capable individuals, they’re oddly restrained—just like Jinoru standing before me right now.

Furthermore, if even one of the five were to falter, the entire nation would crumble immediately. That much is as clear as fire.

If Yuri were to lose her judgment and spiral out of control, wouldn’t it effectively mean losing our safe haven?

And setting that aside, looking at it from my broader perspective—

It wouldn’t be beneficial if the Aishias Army were to recklessly charge into battle and get crushed by the Serpina Army.

The ideal balance for the future of the Lunarien Army would involve maintaining equilibrium among Brance, Serpina, and Aishias here in the Central Continent.

‘Thus, it falls to me to step forward here.’

Having decided to persuade them, it’s now time to lay the groundwork.

To meet with the Lord and persuade them, I’ll need to clarify the situation here and now.

So, should the person I need to persuade be Jinoru?

“Lord Jinoru, would you please come this way?”

Jinoru stared at me with great bewilderment in response to my request—but then slowly approached me with a serious expression.

Ah, Hisfil Castle.

Recalling the past, I remember drawing maps with Iren at Anel Castle.

Hisfil Castle was located near the border area adjacent to the Charan Army back then.

Which means we had maps of that region.

I pulled out the corresponding map from within my robes and spread it out on the table.

“Ultimately, battles take place on the ground.”

I’ve played this game for over ten thousand hours.

I know practically every possible scenario. If Anima’s defeat is nearly certain, I can surely figure out how exactly she’ll lose.

‘Let’s see…’

If Anima departs from Raclaine Castle, there are three routes.

However, there’s no need to examine each route individually.

She would undoubtedly choose the shortest path—a straight line leading directly upward. Though it’s somewhat rugged, it’s still the fastest route.

“Of the three paths, which one would you say is best for launching an ambush?”

“…You keep asking questions without giving proper answers. What’s your game?”

“It’s to accurately explain why Lady Anima is destined to fail.”

“Is that what you call talking?”

Jinoru still wore an expression of confusion.

Certainly, from his perspective, it probably seems like I’m rambling nonsensically.

What should I do here?

I could slowly explain my situation, but now is the time to push harder.

“Yes. Please tell me. I will provide an explanation that will surely satisfy you.”

“…”

If I had just joined the Aishias Army, it probably wouldn’t have worked.

But I’ve already achieved some ‘results,’ and Jinoru has been observing me closely throughout. Although I don’t know his exact thoughts, given that he’s considering marrying off his foster daughter to me, there’s a good chance he’ll listen seriously.

After silently contemplating for a moment, Jinoru nodded slowly, as if making a decision, and finally began to respond.

“…If we’re talking about an ambush, obviously the central shortest route.”

“Exactly. I agree.”

It wasn’t hard to predict Anima’s judgment.

From her point of view, taking advantage of Hisfil Castle being unguarded and attempting a ‘surprise attack’ would be natural.

She would undoubtedly try to arrive as quickly as possible, even if it meant pushing the soldiers to their limits.

“Hold on. Since you asked a question, let me ask one too. It’s better than a one-sided explanation, isn’t it?”

“Go ahead.”

“The fact that Anima is launching a surprise attack implies she has grounds for doing so. What exactly are those grounds?”

In other words, what is Anima basing her attack on?

There’s insufficient information to make assumptions.

Anything will do—I need information about Anima Ingram.

“To answer that, I must inquire about Lady Anima herself.”

“To answer, you must inquire, huh?”

Jinoru mulled over those words for a moment before finally responding to my question.

“…Anima, as you know, was the Nation’s Strategist for the Aishias Army before I arrived. I believe she has talent. Though I didn’t observe her for long, given how the trajectory of the Aishias Army unfolded, it was undoubtedly shaped by her behind-the-scenes efforts.”

“What about her personality?”

“Because she left her post recently, I don’t know much in detail… But she’s extremely cautious. After she became the strategist, I reviewed all the strategies and plans she had devised, and most prioritized minimizing the possibility of failure. She also had a tendency to withdraw immediately if a strategy seemed impossible.”

“Cautious, you say. That’s reassuring. Thank you; it helps. So, she must have verified whether there were troops stationed in the castle or not.”

“That seems highly plausible.”

Given her cautious nature, she wouldn’t have launched a surprise attack recklessly.

Still, according to my reasoning, she loses this battle.

There are many possibilities, but they boil down to two main scenarios:

First, she encounters an unforeseen natural disaster.

Second, there actually are troops stationed in Hisfil Castle.

Let’s set aside the natural disaster for now.

Since it can’t be predicted precisely, there’s no guarantee that a meteor or lightning won’t strike the Aishias Army. Even if events unfold that way, the result of defeat wouldn’t change.

However, I need to persuade Jinoru. Moreover, I need to convince Yuri.

Imagine explaining with a very serious face: “Lady Anima’s troops will lose because a meteor will fall on them.”

Would either she—or Jinoru standing right in front of me—accept that explanation at face value? No matter how skilled I am at summoning meteors, such absurd claims about natural disasters are hard to believe in reality.

Thus, it needs to be a story more convincing to anyone who hears it.

Then the conclusion is the second option—

“There exists an unknown troop presence in Hisfil Castle that even she couldn’t detect despite checking.”

“Unknown troops exist? You’re saying things that make no sense again.”

“But it’s true. Troops can’t suddenly appear in the sky or disappear into the ground… Perhaps they are hidden somewhere…?”

While scrutinizing the map intently, I noticed something entering my field of vision.

“…Huh?”

“?”

Near Hisfil Castle and Raclaine Castle, specifically to the southeast of Hisfil Castle, there was a forest-encircled mountain range that wasn’t particularly tall.

I pointed to that location.

“If the troops were hidden, it would be here.”

If they were concealed here, it adds credibility to the fact that “Anima will lose.” This spot is perfectly suited for ambushing the rear guard by pulling troops back.

“Ambush, you say? …That raises an issue.”

“What is it?”

“Just moments ago, you confidently stated that ‘Anima will lose.’ However, Anima is leading an army exceeding 50,000 troops. To ensure her defeat, wouldn’t an even larger force be necessary? It doesn’t seem feasible to hide that many troops in that vicinity.”

As he says, it’s incredibly difficult to conceal an army of over 50,000 troops in this area.

Even if they somehow managed it…

What about defending the empty Hisfil Castle while attacking from below?

With this setup, the definitive scenario of Anima’s defeat doesn’t emerge clearly.

Still, an ambush feels correct…

To confirm the prediction, I need credible evidence.

What am I missing?

“Let’s shift perspectives.”

Speculating about Anima’s actions goes only so far.

Now, let’s think as if I were Serpina.

“First, the fact that an ambush has been set suggests that the Serpina Army anticipated an attack from the Aishias Army, correct? Do you agree?”

“Agreement or not, there’s no other plausible scenario. There’s no reason to set up an ambush without purpose.”

“Then… The Serpina Army must have laid a trap, I assume.”

“A trap?”

Exactly.

As I verbalized my thoughts, the picture started becoming clearer.

This is a trap set by Serpina.

“They deliberately left the castle vacant to lure Lady Anima. She was tricked into believing there were no troops stationed there, even someone as cautious as Anima.”

“A trap, you say.”

Jinoru examined the location I pointed to on the map several times.

“So, are you saying this: They sent troops out to create the illusion of emptiness, hiding them at this point in the mountain range, thus ensuring her defeat?”

“Hold on. That alone isn’t enough. If Lady Anima were to fall for it, it wouldn’t be from the south where the mountains are, but from another direction…?”

“Hmm?”

Right.

Anima would have moved after confirming the Serpina Army’s departure. To where?

I checked the map again.

Below Hisfil Castle lies Raclaine Castle.

Moving through rough terrain to the right leads to a fork in the road toward Jestrom Castle and Falaharte Castle.

Above, there’s a castle belonging to the Serpina Army.

Finally, to the left, there’s a castle under the jurisdiction of the Brance Army.

The upper direction is irrelevant. There’s no reason for the Serpina Army to withdraw their forces to the rear. If they had, Anima would have won rather than lost, contradicting my conclusion based on predictions.

To the right, Anima’s victory would follow by sending intercepting forces from Falaharte Castle. With news of enemy troops arriving, this direction can be ruled out.

Below is Raclaine Castle. From our army’s perspective, there’s no reason to abandon the easy option of fortifying the castle and travel far to intercept enemies. Given Anima’s strategic acumen as a former strategist, she’d recognize this.

That leaves the left side.

The territory of the Brance Army.

“The Serpina Army feigned an advance toward the territory of the Brance Army. Therefore… Lady Anima took the opportunity to exploit this gap. There’s no other explanation.”

This would be the most natural course of action.

Rather, it’s the only viable option for Anima to consider launching a ‘surprise attack’.

Then… Did they stage a retreat to the left before swiftly redirecting troops to the ambush site?

“No. There’s not enough time.”

Based on the map, a situation arises where Anima’s forces would inevitably encounter them before reaching the ambush site.

Even moving as quickly as possible, they’d only reach midway between Hisfil Castle and the Aishias Army. Depending on the circumstances, Anima could win. After all, the enemy forces would leave the castle defenses.

If they fortified the castle, it would become even stranger. From Anima’s perspective, simply withdrawing her forces would suffice, making their elaborate movements unnecessarily complicated.

And just as I thought that far—

“Hmm… Then when exactly was the ambush set? Surely you aren’t claiming the Serpina Army has hidden reserves we haven’t detected?”

“…Ah.”

Upon hearing his words, I unconsciously let out a sound.

At that moment, the foggy discomfort in my mind cleared significantly.

“Lord Jinoru is correct.”

“…What did you say?”

“The troops lying in ambush… Already exist!”

“!!!”

[The full strength of the Serpina Army isn’t confined to the main force in Hisfil Castle.]

Thinking this way, all of the Serpina Army’s actions fit together seamlessly.

Even the reason for deliberately leaving the castle vacant becomes convincingly explained.

Their seemingly random troop movements weren’t pointless but part of a meticulously planned strategy from the beginning.

“First, they pretended to withdraw troops westward, prompting the Aishias Army to move.”

“After confirming Lady Anima’s advance, they quickly retreated toward the south of Hisfil Castle. Though they couldn’t reach the ambush site, it doesn’t matter because the ambush troops are already in position.”

“Here, whether the Aishias Army chooses to fight or flee makes no difference. The additional ambush troops can surround the rear.”

“Therefore—”

Only now does the picture start to come into focus.

The image of Anima’s defeat.

“Lady Anima will lose this battle.”